As votes continue to be counted in several states, affordable housing advocates began assessing the opportunities and challenges ahead.
“At this point, though the Senate is too close to call, Republicans are favored to retain control of the Senate in the 117th Congress,” says Emily Cadik, executive director of the Affordable Housing Tax Credit Coalition. “In polls before the election, Democrats were favored to gain control, so the results probably surprised many. The main implication if Republicans retain control is that there will be a continuation of divided government, which means gridlock and a narrower sets of potential compromises. While there will still be legislative activity and opportunities to advance legislation to support affordable housing, with a unified government things move more quickly.”
There may have been a thought that if there was blue wave, there was the potential for early, fast-moving stimulus and infrastructure bills, which is now probably less likely to be in the case in a divided Congress, or at least not at the scale originally envisioned, according to Cadik.
“There will still be an opportunity for COVID relief and other stimulus legislation that can include affordable housing provisions, and we will need to be tactical about what is realistically possible,” she says.
Others agree as they wait for final election results and assess the possibilities.
“The Democrats’ losses in the House were a surprise, and we lost some supporters of our agenda,” says David Gasson, executive director of the Housing Advisory Group. “The Senate was more disappointing, not from a political perspective but from a legislative perspective. We have been hoping to get a significant portion of our housing agenda done with a Democratic Senate majority, and now it will likely be more measured. We are not sure how big a Republican Senate will be willing to go.”
Gasson says Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate leader from Kentucky, is an incrementalist and doesn’t like big bills.
“It’s going to be a push for us. I think we can potentially get much of the AHCIA (Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act), but it might come down to non-cost regulatory changes and then maybe three, four, or five key provisions that we can put into an economic stimulus or infrastructure bill,” he says.
Gasson believes there’s still a good shot at getting the 4% credit fix and increasing the 9% low-income housing tax credit allocation over current levels, two key measures in the AHCIA.
Leadership Moves
The election will mean new leadership changes on several important committees, adds Bob Moss, national director of governmental affairs at CohnReznick.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) won her reelection bid. That’s significant because if the Republicans retain control of the Senate, she is in line to become chair of the mighty Appropriations Committee, putting someone who is strong on housing issues in charge of the spending committee, Moss says.
And, again if Republicans hold on to the Senate, Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho will likely become chairman of the important Finance Committee. This is significant because Crapo has been supportive of affordable housing and the housing credit, and he gets along very well with Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), the ranking member of the committee, according to Gasson.
“We’ll be in a strong position with advocates in key positions on both sides of the aisle,” he says.
Control of the Senate was still unknown at press time, with both Georgia seats possibly heading to runoffs.
No matter the outcome, the affordable housing industry needs to recruit new supporters and perform its education efforts at the beginning of a new Congress, according to advocates.
“Of the 11 Senate Republicans who cosponsored the housing credit legislation, Johnny Isakson of Georgia is retiring and two others, Martha McSally of Arizona and Cory Gardner of Colorado, lost their races,” Cadik says.
On the House side, 13 Republican supporters of the housing credit resigned or retired this year. “That underscores our continued need to work both sides of the aisle and make sure we have strong support from each,” she says.
While votes were still being tallied several days after the election, Joe Biden is poised to become the next president of the United States. That would mean a new administration and leadership at the Department of Housing and Urban Development as well as new housing policies.
“Vice President Biden put out a housing plan that called for $640 billion in investment in affordable housing over the next 10 years,” Cadik says. “His ability to move forward on a huge proposal like this does depend on support from Congress. If Senate Republicans retain control, it seems unlikely they would be willing to put forward $640 billion for housing so it will be important to work with the administration and see what elements can still make it through Congress.”
Cadik and others think there will be action on the regulatory side as well because issues like Community Reinvestment Act reform and flexibilities they’ve been seeking from the IRS are ones they can make strides with the administration regardless of what’s happening in Congress.
Moss also offers an important reminder for everyone to keep their eyes on the critical issues of budget deadlines and the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Whether posting a hard fought win or suffering the agony of defeat following Tuesday's election, the current members of the U.S. Congress must avoid a government shutdown in December during a pandemic,” he says. “Despite the lack of results for the election, we do know that the coronavirus is winning, and the public is losing the battle.”
