Rising income and decelerating expense growth continue to elevate net operating income (NOI) for fully affordable housing properties, according to new research from Yardi Matrix.
NOI grew an average of 5.6% between January and August 2025, said the report, noting that the income growth reflects Department of Housing and Urban Development rent increase formulas that take higher inflation and wage growth into account.
While the latest expense and income figures are welcome news for affordable housing owners, especially considering the sluggish NOI growth recorded from 2021 to 2023, Yardi Matrix analysts caution that “the industry can’t afford to celebrate.”
That’s because factors such as property maintenance bills coming due and the slowing of income-boosting inflation “are subject to rapid change.” In addition, federal cuts to various renter subsidies, food assistance, and Medicaid could impair low-income residents’ ability to pay rent, report researchers.
The data is derived from more than 7,000 fully affordable properties (properties where at least 90% of units have income restrictions tied to subsidies) that use Yardi accounting software.
Among Matrix’s top 30 metros, five—Raleigh, North Carolina; Kansas City, Missouri; Columbus, Ohio; Washington, D.C.; and Philadelphia—have recorded at least double-digit percentage increases in NOI year to date for fully affordable properties. Two others—San Diego and Indianapolis—were just shy of 10% NOI growth.
Six of the Matrix top 30 metros recorded negative NOI year to date in 2025: Austin, Texas; New Jersey; Seattle; Baltimore; Atlanta; and Charlotte, North Carolina. Although most of these metros recorded above-trend expense growth, most of the poor performance can be attributed to weak revenue growth for a variety of reasons.
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