Democrats won control of Congress, and several states and cities approved key housing measures in Tuesday’s midterm election.
“This was a cost-of-living election, and housing affordability was central to it,” says Ali Solis, CEO of Solis Strategic Solutions. “We expected Democrats to win both chambers, and they did. The wave was just much larger and geographically diverse than we forecasted. Voters sent a clear message that the cost of rent, homeownership being out of reach, and everyday living cost is way too high. People are struggling, and they want Washington to act.”
Despite Tuesday’s election results, the win does not hand anyone a black check, adds Solis, an affordable housing industry veteran.
“Maintaining strong bipartisan support will be essential,” she says. “The president still holds the veto, and Senate Republicans can still block major bills. For the housing industry, the next two years will be about Congress funding key programs (including new ones included in ROAD), lots of subpoenas and oversight hearings of the agencies, and pushing on expanding housing supply. A sweeping rewrite of federal housing policy is unlikely. Organizations that come ready with projects, data, and practical policy fixes with strong bipartisan support will be in the strongest position.”
The industry tried to work with the Trump administration from the beginning of its tenure on housing affordability issues, only to have that work go nowhere, says David Gasson, partner at MG Housing Strategies.
“The election outcomes are a result of the administration choosing to ignore the economic plight of the country,” he says. “The only surprise was the extent to which the Republican party paid for the administration's choice to ignore the economy.”
Power Shifts in Congress
Although several races remained too close to call on Wednesday, it was clear that Democrats flipped a number of seats and will take over both the House and the Senate.
One estimate has the Democrats having 231 seats in the House, where 218 is needed for control. In the Senate, Democrats are projected to hold 54 seats.
This means that the leaders and members of the major housing committees will change.
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) is expected to be chair of House Financial Services, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is expected to chair Senate Banking, and Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) will lead the Senate Appropriations Committee, according to Solis.
“There will be a ton of new members to meet with and staff to brief,” she says. “Expect more oversight hearings on the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Treasury’s proposed rule on large institutional investors buying single-family homes.”
As the dust settled from election night, it was clear that several affordable housing supporters had lost their seats.
"Over the past 40 years, my experience is that every wave election has its casualties, and this was no different,” says Bob Moss, partner at MG Housing Strategies. “Losing Senate Appropriations chairman Susan Collins (R-Maine) as an example, who was a huge housing supporter in the key role, is a loss."
Emily Cadik, CEO of the Affordable Housing Tax Credit Coalition, was also assessing the election results, in particular what they mean for pending housing bills.
“This was a wave election, which means we will have many new members of Congress to educate about affordable housing issues in the new Congress,” she says. “Going into the elections yesterday, we already knew that several of our housing credit champions, like Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa), would not be returning to the next Congress. We also knew that at least seven other senators and 30 representatives who had cosponsored the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act (AHCIA) to support the housing credit would not be returning. Last night, another three Senate cosponsors and 15 representatives who had cosponsored the AHCIA lost their races, and there could be more as results are finalized.”
The defeats are concentrated among Republicans—currently 29 out of the 85 House Republican AHCIA cosponsors and six of the 21 Senate Republican cosponsors are not returning—roughly one-third of Republican AHCIA cosponsors, notes Cadik.
“All this points to a need to recruit new supporters in the next Congress, and we will continue to work to ensure that the support for the housing credit remains bipartisan,” she says.
Gasson agrees the industry lost considerable support on Capitol Hill, including numerous AHCIA supporters. “That said, we have housing champions returning to leadership roles in the House and Senate, including income Ways and Means chair Richie Neal (D-Mass.), incoming Appropriations chair Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), incoming Financial Services chair Maxine Waters, incoming Finance chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and incoming Banking chair Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)”
With new leadership taking over Senate Appropriations, Democrats will write the fiscal 2028 HUD spending bill, which will likely give HOME, Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), and housing vouchers more protection. It also improves the odds that Congress actually funds the new programs the ROAD to Housing Act created, shares Solis.
“The good news is that the Senate’s interest in housing supply has always been bipartisan,” she says. “Leaders like Sen. Warren and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) were already working on a second housing package. We think that work continues.”
Ballot Measures
In California, Proposition 1, a massive housing bond, is projected to pass. The measure had about 59.4% approval at press time. Proposition 1 authorizes $11.25 billion in bonds, including $1.25 billion that would go toward veteran housing. The rest would help fund affordable rental homes, homeownership programs, farmworker housing, and more.
Bond proceeds are expected to help fund up to 40,000 multifamily rental units, while also helping another 40,000 households buy a home.
In Rhode Island, it appeared voters passed a ballot initiative authorizing $120 million in general obligation bonds for affordable housing. In Hawaii, voters also supported bonds for infrastructure development.
At the local level, housing bond measures in North Carolina’s Charlotte and Raleigh and in Baltimore all passed, report observers.
“Measures that change permitting and zoning had a harder time,” says Solis. “California’s Prop 45 trailed, and Massachusetts Question 7 is too close to call. Changing the rules is still the hardest part of supply policy and why continued advocacy is so important.”
Proposition 45 in California seeks to reform an environmental review law for building “essential” projects in the state. Question 7 in Massachusetts would make it easier to develop single-family homes on smaller lots.
Solis cites another trend to watch as Florida and North Carolina approved new limits on property taxes. “That relief is popular, but it can squeeze the local budgets that help pay for affordable housing and homelessness services,” she says.
Election Takeaways
“Affordability decided this election, and housing is now a top national issue for voters. Both parties will spend the next two years competing to show they can lower housing costs and expand supply,” Solis says, adding that the first test comes as funding runs out Dec. 11, and none of the fiscal 2026 appropriations spending bills have been signed.
It is still the economy that matters most to voters, agrees Gasson.
“I have not spoken to a Democratic official that believes this was a mandate for their party,” he says. “They know they must now work with Republicans to address the economic stresses affecting Americans or the pendulum will swing back and knock them out of office.”
Affordability, including housing, will continue to be a top-tier issue going into the 120th Congress, says Moss.
“With a Democratic Congress and Republican White House, the appetite for legislating next year remains to be seen,” says Cadik. “Though gridlock seems likely, affordable housing is well positioned to the extent that there are any bipartisan breakthroughs. The Trump administration, as well as both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, have shown an interest in further action on housing affordability. Our focus for any legislation that comes together will be advancing policies to further strengthen the housing credit, with a focus on promoting investor demand to support the recent expansion of the program.”
Solis recommends housing organizations advocate for key programs like HOME, CDBG, homelessness funding, and rental assistance.
“Then they should build relationships with the incoming committee leaders, new members, and their staffs,” she says. “The organizations that build strong bipartisan relationships, show up early, and get new members out to their districts/states, with projects ready to build, will help shape what Congress does next. And finally, this election taught us the importance of state and local policy leaders who are funding and shaping housing policy. There’s an entire new group of local policy leaders that we need to engage as housing champions as well.”