The little list in the State of the Union

GovExec has already highlighted President Bush's call to reduce spending for public services, but there's a lot more we can predict about which cuts the White House will push hardest in its annual budget proposal to Congress, which is set for release this coming Monday. (By the way, NH&RA notes that House Ways and Means has already scheduled a hearing on the proposal for Tuesday, Feb. 7.) [UPDATE: GovExec has added to its coverage as discussed below.]

One of the more specific foreshadowings in the State of the Union speech was this:

Every year of my presidency, we've reduced the growth of nonsecurity discretionary spending. And last year you passed bills that cut this spending.

This year my budget will cut it again and reduce or eliminate more than 140 programs that are performing poorly or not fulfilling essential priorities.

It's about three-fifths of the way down in the transcript.

Although the speech used the future definite tense, everyone knows Congress won't accept all of those proposed cuts. On the other hand, the mere making of such proposals will force people who value those programs to use up energy getting back to the status quo -- as happened with last year's proposal to end Community Development Block Grants.

At least we do know what the speech likely meant by "performing poorly" and which "more than 140" programs the White House will likely try to close down. It's pretty clearly referring to programs with low ratings under the the Office of Management and Budget's PART rating system, which issues program-by-program ratings of "effectiveness" according to criteria that are apparently developed jointly by OMB and federal agency officials.

[UPDATE: I discovered after writing this post that GovExec had more today on PART ratings and likely White House calls for program cuts. It's a good article.]

OMB's PART page is promoting the imminent launch of a new "ExpectMore.gov" Web site that is to showcase "nearly 800 program assessments" -- and the site is to be unveiled Feb. 6, 2006, the same day as the budget proposal. Mark my words: "ExpectMore" will be the public relations arm of a renewed White House campaign to end the Community Development Block Grants and other urban-oriented economic development programs, plus probably HOPE VI and possibly major housing subsidy programs such as seniors and disability housing under Secs. 202 and 811.

The PART program assessments that are already listed in OMB's large PDF summary give low "Results Not Demonstrated" or "Ineffective" ratings to some 200 federal programs. Predictably, education, housing and environmental programs get more frequent low ratings of "effectiveness" as defined by the current administration.

Housing isn't the worst off in these ratings -- PART assessments have even less use for education programs -- but housing does take quite a few heavy slams. Scroll down to HUD's part of the Index, on page 614 of the PDF, for OMB's opinion of major housing programs it has thus far PARTed. You'll find the "Ineffective" rating goes to Community Development Block Grants, HOPE VI, "Project-Based Rental Assistance," and Rural Housing and Economic Development. "Results Not Demonstrated" ratings go to the Fair Housing Initiatives Program, Housing for Persons with Disabilities, Housing for the Elderly, HOPWA, Native American Housing Block Grants, and the Partnership for Advancing Technology in Housing. The White House has already proposed cutting most of these. It will certainly propose the same again and more.